Liz's Y2K Project Overview:

Introduction
The Origin
The Problem
The Possible Results
My Personal Analysis
Reference List




The Millenium Computer Bug Intro:

Y2K is coming�are you afraid? Many people are concerned, and not because of the future or new things. The past is the source of their worries. Mainly the past systems still used in computers today; which may likely affect the way they function. Since in today's modern society we rely on technology and its benefits this is becoming a well-known, widespread problem known commonly as the Y2K or Millenium Bug. Y2K means the year two thousand which will be the millenium change. That change is coming soon bringing along the problems attached to that date.

 

 

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THE ORIGIN:

The concerns are recent, but the problem itself has been around for years. It originated in the 50's and 60's, of the twentieth century (of course the 1900s). When computers were fairly new and less common. The programs designed to run the computer systems kept track of the date using only the last two digits, omitting the "19" which indicated the century.

 

They didn't think it necessary to include the "19", and by using this short form dating system they saved time, space, and money. The memory on their computers was extremely expensive when first used it years ago. This was convenient and efficient, and caught on to other programmers and computer users. Nobody considered the potential flaw likely to come about at the hundred years as a result of the unspecified date.

This is where the problem comes, or should I say when. People have realized and started to assess the problem because the new Millenium is not far away. But it has just recently been publicized to the extreme. In our life we are dependant on many computer-run facilities and electronics. This makes our modern society full of technological vulnerabilities. The threat that has crept up upon our high-tech necessities scares many and confuses more.

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THE PROBLEM

When using a two-digit date it will change from '99' to '00' on the next new years day. This will supposedly complicate things by confusing the computers date. Each computer will assume the year to be 1900 rather than 2000. Because the year 2000 wasn't programmed into the computer systems so it will recognize the '00' as the only '00' date it knows, the earliest one; 1900. These dates are also often buried within other info.

Many things probably will not be affected greatly by this simple error. But there are date-dependant and date-controlled systems that are expected to crash, because in order for them to run it needs to recognize the correct date and if the recorded date is '00' or . That's why special measures are being taken and this whole thing is becoming a big deal.

When it's supposedly '1900', people might not even receive certain benefits such as Medicade, Social Security, and Veteran's benefits because technically, according to the computers they haven't even been born yet�Also people's mortgages may appear unpaid or totally non-existent. These are only a couple examples of how this bug or date glitch can affect much of the public.

Large companies and industries are concerned about major failures. Ontario hydro has spent large amounts of time and money to ensure that power continues on into the year '00'. They recently did a run-through sort of test and found no obvious failures. But we can't be sure of the problems that are still to come. Banks (in Canada alone) also, by December '99 will have spent nearly one billion dollars in order to avoid losing records and balances that deal with everyone's money and investments.

There may also be some confusion because the year two thousand is also a leap year and that isn't programmed in either. But basically, when the year changes to 2000 this millenium bug may cause some appliances and machines to malfunction, and most PC's dates will be incorrect maybe causing the loss of files and/or information. Major computer systems may go bezerk causing problems worldwide 'cause we depend on the technology around us. The major problem about this problem is that we are ignorant as to what is really going to happen. Some systems may just automatically shut down, others not; nobody really knows for sure. I think it will be interesting to see what actually does happen, and how the public reacts.

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THE PROBLEMS THAT COULD ARISE AS RESULT OF THE BUG:

There are many various problems (direct and indirect) that could arise as a result of the Y2K or Millenium bug. Some of the major ones I've already mentioned earlier such as the possible bank confusions and power failures that may occur. But the list is probably endless as to everything that could go wrong, because people aren't exactly sure what's really going to happen. But there are many predictions.

Some countries have done more to prepare than others, but it has been suggested and encouraged. As I read in an article from a newspaper said:

"Russian missiles, Chinese power systems and Mideast shipping could all face breakdowns because many foreign countries are failing to face up to the seriousness of the Year 2000 computer problem, the CIA told congress.."

It's kind of a scary thought that the Russian's missile early warning systems could be set off causing confusion and maybe some chaos. But it's comforting to know that it's currently being taken care of because someone foresaw it and gave the effort to help.

Grocery stores, police stations, fire stations, hospitals all use systems that could also fail. But I personally don't think it's these things that will be the main problems. I think it's gonna be the people themselves who are terrified of what may happen that may cause problems that will effect the general public more. Since most of the other potential dangers having to do with the computers themselves are being dealt with by back-up systems and test-runs etc. I think the bug itself won't cause too much danger. It's the people who get intimidated by all the hype and withdraw all of their money out of the banks because they think it might get lost. If enough people do this the banks themselves might collapse, causing total disaster.

Other problems could include delayed airplane flights, because of the fear that their computer-run systems may malfunction. A Speaker at a recent Y2K conference said "There is a possibility that we will lose electrical power forever�" Another person also said though that "Y2K is a one-day event. People will fix any problems over the weekend" These views are both rather extreme. I expect something in between. 40, 000, 000 computer systems worldwide remain affected and susceptible. I guess we'll just have to wait to see what's really going to happen and who it's going to affect.

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MY PERSONAL ANALYSIS:

As a Canadian and a youth currently living in the twentieth century I truly don't think that this "Y2K Bug" will affect me that strongly when the new millenium starts. I think that this bug may be the least of our problems when we face the new year.

If the power fails January 1, 2000 I will be affected, but living in the country here I think I'll be fine because we won't even lose heat like most other people; our house is heated by wood stoves. I myself am fairly separated from others and think that I could easily make it through a time period without power or computer usage. But for one thing, saying as an excuse for not handing in your project that 'the computer screwed up' will probably be a credible one. I actually think it will be interesting if our culture must all work together to make it through.

I, personally think that although a lot of money is being spent on ensuring systems work and run smoothly, that there are those making profit off of this. For example all of the programs being sold to common PC owners. I don't think it'll be as big a problem as some make it seem.

It may affect me through my dad who works with computers. Everyday at work his projects rely on the use of computers. So if there is some major problem I'd find out soon enough. And my mother is a nurse, so I hope they've figured out some back-up power plans for the hospitals because that would be hectic for all those in healthcare.

I don't think the bank's problems will affect me too much unless something goes terribly wrong�because it's not like I have a mortgage or any huge payments that I've been working at paying off.

If the school was affected, and say the computer lab crashed I might get an extra-long lunch time. But then I'd miss using all of these wonderful programs, systems and studios that are broadening my understanding of technology and this Millenium Bug itself.

I heard as I passed by from one of those street-preachers that "Just as the computers will shut down and fail so will our bodies�" There are some strange views out there, and some are taking this all way too seriously considering all that's being done. I myself am just going to wait and not ponder what might happen but just deal with it as it comes and hope for the best.

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Reference List:

American Press. 1999. "Russia, others face major Y2K problems CIA says!" The Peterborough Examiner. 25 February A-8 

 

Glasbergen. "Y2K Cartoons." [http://www.glasbergen.com/y2k.html]

 

Rayment, David. 1999. Personal Interview. 23 March.

 

"The Computer Science Part of the Y2K Problem" [http://www.y2koncepts.com/intron.htm]

 

Unknown to me. 1999. "Too Many Bugs." Scientific American. January: 48-50

[http://www.y2k.com/modules/home/default.asp?id=628]